Belize Tropical Weather Outlook: June 16, 2021

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Belize NMS Forecast

June 16, 2021

A broad area of low pressure associated with disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche. This area has a high chance of tropical cyclone development over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

USA National Weather Service Forecast

June 16, 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post- Tropical Cyclone Bill, located a couple hundred miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system will move little during the next day or so, and little if any development is expected during that time due to interaction with land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical Weather Discussion

...Special features...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. Fresh to strong NW-N winds are noted within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz where seas are 3 to 5 ft. This system will move little during the next day or so, and little if any development is expected during that time due to interaction with land. However, the broad disturbance should begin to move northward on Thu, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thu or on Fri when the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Fri. Please consult products from your local meteorological service for more information. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NWS National Hurricane Center at website: www.hurricanes.gov for more details on this area.

...Tropical Waves...

A tropical wave is analyzed near 30W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 30W and 37W.

A tropical wave is analyzed near 52W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 51W and 53W.

A tropical wave is analyzed near 76W from 18N southward across western Colombia. No significant convection is noted over water, however scattered thunderstorms near the tropical wave axis are occurring over portions of western Colombia.

A tropical wave is analyzed across southern Mexico near 94W southward into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted across the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and Guatemala, with a band of scattered moderate convection from 12N to 18N between 82W and 88W including over eastern Honduras and Nicaragua. Frequent lightning is occurring in these areas of deep convection.

...The Caribbean Sea...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details.

An overnight scatterometer pass showed a large area of fresh to strong SE winds in the NW Caribbean where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Deep convection is occurring near this area as well as described in the Tropical Waves section above. The scatterometer pass data also indicated fresh to strong winds in the S central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades were noted elsewhere, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Seas are mainly in the 4 to 7 ft range across the basin, except locally to 8 ft in the S central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N.


48 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development


Tropical Storm Bill becomes post-tropical; Watching the Gulf for development
Accuweather

June 16, 2021

In the Atlantic basin, we currently have post tropical Storm Bill which is located several hundred miles to the south-southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Bill continues to track quickly off to the northeast away from the United States coast. In addition to Bill, we continue to monitor a broad area of low pressure, Invest 92L, in the southern Gulf of Mexico. There are also tropical waves near 65 west and 43 west tracking westward at 10-15 mph. The wave near 65 west will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week and may help to further the potential tropical development of Invest 92L. Finally, there is a tropical wave near 24 west that has been designated as Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Bill has lost all tropical characteristics due to the influence of colder waters and is now a post-tropical low. What remains of Bill will be absorbed into a larger non-tropical storm.

In the southern Gulf of Mexico, we continue to watch a broad area of low pressure that has been designated as Invest 92L. Current satellite imagery continues to show a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms associated with 92L. This low is likely to organize further later this week into a tropical depression or storm as it moves northward across the southern Gulf of Mexico over warm waters. In the short term, 92L will continue to cause heavy, flooding rainfall across parts of Central America and southern Mexico through Thursday night. Invest 92L will then move northward and approach the central Gulf Coast by this weekend. Regardless of any tropical development, 92L will bring tropical moisture and the threat for heavy, flooding rainfall to parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast by this weekend into early next week. Due to strong wind shear, the bulk of the heavy rainfall will be displaced well to the northeast of the actual low-level center of the potential tropical system.

Finally, there is a low chance of development later this week in association with a tropical wave near 24 west that has been designated as Invest 94L. Satellite imagery already shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in association with 94L. There is a low chance that 94L develops later this week as it tracks westward across the eastern and into the central Atlantic. By this weekend, 94L will move into a zone of higher wind shear and dry air which would limit its potential for further tropical development.



120 Hour Forecast - Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Invest 92-L Is Likely To Develop Into A Tropical Storm As It Heads For The Northern Gulf Of Mexico Late This Week
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services
June 16, 2021

Invest 92-L Located In The Bay Of Campeche: I continue to closely monitor Invest 92-L, which is a broad low pressure system that remains nearly stationary in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery today indicated that there is disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Invest 92-L. The environmental conditions remain unfavorable for immediate development due to westerly wind shear of up to 25 knots. Closer analysis reveals that the wind shear values are likely to decrease over the next 24 hours or so & I think that we will begin to see development from Invest 92-L starting on Thursday.

It is still expected that Invest 92-L will begin to move northward out of the Bay of Campeche and into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday reaching the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday night into Saturday. In addition, I think that itís very likely that Invest 92-L will develop into a tropical depression on Thursday or Thursday night and then a tropical storm on Friday or Friday night.

There are still uncertainties regarding where exactly the center of this system will come ashore along the northern Gulf Coast on Saturday.

For one, the low-level center of Invest 92-L hasnít formed yet. Once we see that, we should have a better idea of where this system will come ashore. With that said, there may be a mid-level center that has formed over the southern Gulf of Mexico near 23 North Latitude, 92.5 West Longitude. This is actually a little further east than what the model guidance has been showing. Why is this important? Because it means that once we start to see a northward track on Thursday, a track a little further east could mean the center of Invest 92-L could come ashore somewhere between New Iberia and Grand Isle, Louisiana during the day on Saturday.

It is also possible that a new center could form even further east near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as we have multiple centers rotating around a broad low pressure center. If we do see a further east center development, it could mean the center of Invest 92-L could come ashore as far east as New Orleans or Gulfport.

My Track and Intensity Forecast Of Invest 92-L Ė As of right now, I think that this system will become a tropical depression sometime on Thursday or Thursday night over the southern Gulf of Mexico. From there, I think that Invest 92-L will probably strengthen from a tropical depression into Tropical Storm Claudette on Friday or Friday night as it continues to head northward towards the northern Gulf of Mexico.

As for landfall, I think that the center of Invest 92-L will move onshore along the south-central or southeastern Louisiana coast around midday Saturday as a 50 to 60 mph tropical storm.

Forecast Impacts: The biggest threat from Invest 92-L is still expected to be heavy rainfall and this is still expected to be an east-weighted storm. This means that most of the squalls and heavy rainfall will probably occur to the east of where this system comes ashore.

Based on this, squally weather with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding is possible across southeastern Louisiana, central and southern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, much of the Florida Panhandle and western Georgia. In this area, 6 to 12 inches of rain is expected. This squally weather with heavy rainfall is expected to begin during the day on Friday and continue through Saturday and Sunday.

The bullseye for maximum rainfall amounts of around one foot and possibly more could occur in an area from about Fort Walton Beach, Florida westward to about Morgan City, Louisiana. This includes southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.

Invest 92-L Information:

Model Track Forecast:

Satellite Imagery:

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued on Thursday.



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Jeff Masters, Yale Climate Connections

May 25, 2021


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Last edited by Marty; 6 hours ago.