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Re: Tropical Storm Marco [Re: Marty] #544344
08/21/20 04:21 AM
08/21/20 04:21 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,844
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Conditions as of 4am:
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NEMO ADVISORY # 2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 14

THURSDAY, 20TH AUGUST, 2020 as at 7:00 p.m.

The National Meteorological Services of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby advises the general public that the center of tropical depression #14 was centered near latitude 14.7N, longitude 81.7W or about 100 miles ESE of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras/Nicaragua border and 475 ESE of Belize City. The depression was moving to the west at 17mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. The official forecast is for TD#14 to continue moving westward for the next 12 hours or so then to recurve to the WNW and eventually NW later on Friday. The system is also forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm by Friday. On this track the system is forecast to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, north of Belize, late on Saturday. If the system takes the southernmost path of the forecast cone it will make landfall just north of the Belize/Mexico border. In that case, the northern parts of the country would feel the greatest impact including heavy rainfall of up to 2-4 inches and gusty winds. However, the remainder of the country could also experience heavy rainfall and possible flooding from the outer bands of this system. The National Meteorological Service will continue to monitor this system very closely and update NEMO accordingly.

If the situation changes for the worse NEMO would activate its national mechanism and declare Phase II - Red I to put in effect a provisional Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Belize which means (1) people will need to put their family plan into action, (2) the public would be advised to shelter in place in a safe building, (3) school managements would be notified that NEMO needs to access schools as shelters, (4) a price freeze would be issued for all goods, (5) public and private essential agencies and utility companies would be informed to release their employees to seek shelter for their safety, (5) road infrastructure works would have to prioritize actions that will enable mass evacuation and (6) media houses and telephone service providers would be advised to secure their communication infrastructure, including other actions.

All in high risk areas are reminded IF the need arises for you to evacuate, move early, know which shelter you will go to, take along your essential necessities required for you to survive. COVID 19 Shelter Protocols and SI -119 of 2020 shall be adhered to. You must wear a mask, people showing symptoms will be isolated in a separate section of the shelter building, hand washing / sanitizing must be done before entering a shelter. Shelter Wardens and Managers will allocate shelter space. Social distance must be adhered to and shelters must be sanitized on a regular basis, garbage properly disposed of. Proper cleaning and disinfection cannot be emphasized enough. The elderly and persons with underlying health conditions must not occupy the same space with normal persons. Shelter Managers must monitor and correct hygiene and exercise cough / sneeze etiquette. The Ministry of Health (MOH) staff will conduct daily monitoring of shelters to detect people who are sick and showing signs of COVID19. The Shelter Management Team (Public Officers / Volunteers) MUST use PPE. The NEMO Emergency Hotline is 936. NEMO's Emergency Coordinators can be reached as follows:

1. Corozal, Mr. Ronnie Hernandez at 614 7140;
2. Orange Walk, Mr. Aragon at 615 2264; or Mr. Leiva at 614 7177
3. Belize District, Mr. Alphius Gillett at 614 4735;
4. San Pedro, Ms. Vanessa Parham at 614 5865;
5. Belize City, Mr. Al Westby at 614 8604 or Mr. Pollard at 614 3244;
6. Belmopan, Ms. Clare Moody at 614 5705; or Mr. Eiley at 624 2365
7. Cayo, Mr. Al Westby at 614 8604 or Mr. Johnny Ramclam at 614 5891;
8. Stann Creek -Coastal- Dangriga including Mullins River to Independence),
9. Mr. Kevin Flores at 604 3632
10. Stann Creek -Interior- Hummingbird and Southern highway communities, Mr. David Cruz at 614 8514; and for
11. Toledo, Mr. Kenton Parham at 614 2158 or Mr. Dennis Williams at 614 2393

We don't anticipate the need to evacuate San Pedro and the Cayes. NEMO will keep the general public updated on any further developments. The public is advised to stay alert and start putting your plan into action. Please adhere to the official release from the National Met Service and NEMO.

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From 8pm Thursday night:

The high level cloud from that Depression will be coming over Belize over night, but I don't think the rain will be getting to us until tomorrow. Also, it looks as if its rain and activity is rapidly reducing, not so many swellups in it, it is meeting up with high level from the Pacific hurricane and being deflected to the north and braking up. I am not expecting much, if any rain from it tonight, and possibly not much tomorrow either.

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Re: Tropical Storm Marco [Re: Marty] #544350
08/21/20 05:34 AM
08/21/20 05:34 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,844
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Current Location:

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Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, through today. The system is expected be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect.

2The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days

Re: Tropical Storm Marco [Re: Marty] #544356
08/21/20 08:06 AM
08/21/20 08:06 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,844
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Crown Weather:

Tropical Depression #14 Will Bring Tropical Storm Conditions To The Northern Yucatan Peninsula By Late Saturday

Tropical Depression #14:
8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 16.2 North Latitude, 84.2 West Longitude or about 160 miles to the east of Isla Roatan, Honduras.
Maximum Winds: 35 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 Millibars or 29.77 Inches.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph.

Tropical Depression #14 is very close to tropical storm strength. Even though it seems that TD 14 has a fairly well defined circulation, it lacks in deep convection near the center. With that said, there is banding noted on satellite imagery. This means that I do think that this system will be upgraded to a tropical storm as soon as this afternoon or tonight.

Gradual strengthening is then expected through Saturday before this system moves across the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday night. This means that tropical storm conditions are likely across the northern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

It is expected that Tropical Depression 14 will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico as probably a tropical storm. There are uncertainties, however, as to how much TD 14 will strengthen as it tracks northward across the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected that wind shear is expected to increase by Monday night and Tuesday across the northern Gulf of Mexico and this will likely lead to any strengthening to stop.

Another thing that will affect the track and strength of TD 14 is its interaction with TD 13/Laura. This interaction could lead to Laura pushing TD 14 further west towards eastern Mexico or allow TD 14 to speed up and strengthen and head for southern and southeastern Louisiana. The interaction between 2 systems this close together in the Gulf of Mexico is extremely rare and there are more unknowns than knowns on what may happen.

Bottom Line Is That it is likely that TD 14 will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday as a tropical storm and may try to strengthen into a hurricane as it tracks towards either the Texas or Louisiana coast.

I urge everyone along the Texas and Louisiana coast to prepare as if a hurricane is coming on Tuesday. The uncertainties with TD 14 are very large and impacts along the Texas and Louisiana coast could be anything from just some squally weather to a full-blown major hurricane.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here

Re: Tropical Storm Marco [Re: Marty] #544362
08/21/20 10:36 AM
08/21/20 10:36 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,844
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

.
Marty  Offline OP
Current satellite view...

[Linked Image]

Re: Tropical Storm Marco [Re: Marty] #544364
08/21/20 12:11 PM
08/21/20 12:11 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,844
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probability

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Re: Tropical Storm Marco [Re: Marty] #544370
08/21/20 05:00 PM
08/21/20 05:00 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,844
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional strengthening is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central Gulf of Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches)

It is a bit of a mystery why the depression has struggled to develop much central convection, given a seemingly low-shear environment and warm waters. Since these conditions are expected to continue for the next few days, intensification is still indicated in the official forecast, although the rate of strengthening has been muted a bit while the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula given its current structure. After the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, many of the models still show the cyclone reaching hurricane intensity in about 3 days, including the intensity consensus, and that possibility is still shown in the NHC forecast. By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by 30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast. The official forecast has been reduced at that time, although it's noteworthy to mention that it still lies above all the guidance on day 4.

Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it could still be near hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region.

The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated Sunday and Monday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday.

The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding.

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TD 14 Will Sail By Belize, Forecasts Say

Last night, we told you about Tropical Depression 14. That's the storm that formed several days ago off the coast of Nicaragua and quickly began gaining strength.

Forecast models were suggesting that could make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, which meant that Belize, specifically the northern districts, would have been experiencing tropical storm force winds and large volumes of rain.

Well, the updated information on this storm suggests that its path has shifted a bit more east, which means Belize may not be as heavily impacted, as was initially feared. But, you should still prepare for bad weather, related to this system's outer bands.

The experts believe that once it crosses over the Yucatan, it with gather strength from the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and it will then head to the southern coast of the United States as a category 1 hurricane.

A hurricane watch is in effect for Punta Herrito to Cancun, Mexico. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras and that same area of Punta Herrito to Cancun, Mexico. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the north and west of Cancun, all the way to Dzilam de Bravo, Mexico.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast by tomorrow afternoon. Hurricane conditions are also possible later in the day.

This afternoon, the center of TD-14 was located over the Western Caribbean Sea about 180 miles east-northeast of Isla Roatan, Honduras. Its maximum sustained winds are near 35 miles per hour, with higher gusts.

Channel 7

Re: Tropical Storm Marco [Re: Marty] #544371
08/22/20 04:34 AM
08/22/20 04:34 AM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,844
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Tropical Storm Marco

Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Marco is centered near 18.7N 84.9W at 22/0300 UTC or about 155 miles SE of Cozumel, Mexico moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 230 nm in the northern semicircle. Seas are 12 feet within 30 nm of the NE quadrant. On the forecast track, a slightly slower northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by an increase in forward speed by early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 85.4 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today. The center will approach the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by early evening and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday followed by a track toward the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area this afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by this evening.

Marco is forecast to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday as it approaches the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region.

The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated on Sunday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.

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Re: Tropical Storm Marco [Re: Marty] #544389
08/22/20 03:19 PM
08/22/20 03:19 PM
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 75,844
oregon, spr
Marty Offline OP

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Marty  Offline OP
Our depression has intensified and starting to move north faster and has now been classified as a storm TROPICAL STORM MARCO as it goes up past western Cuba. The other one over Haiti TROPICAL STORM LAURA has also strengthened. . . Interestingly they expect the two to cross paths twice, 2 days later, in the north Gulf area, as they both go over New Orleans area, both, still close to Cat.1 The Pacific hurricane has now completely collapsed.

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