At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional strengthening is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central Gulf of Mexico.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches)
It is a bit of a mystery why the depression has struggled to develop much central convection, given a seemingly low-shear environment and warm waters. Since these conditions are expected to continue for the next few days, intensification is still indicated in the official forecast, although the rate of strengthening has been muted a bit while the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula given its current structure. After the center moves over the Gulf of Mexico, many of the models still show the cyclone reaching hurricane intensity in about 3 days, including the intensity consensus, and that possibility is still shown in the NHC forecast. By day 4, the cyclone is likely to be blasted by 30-40 kt of southwesterly shear, which would lead to weakening while it approaches the northwestern Gulf coast. The official forecast has been reduced at that time, although it's noteworthy to mention that it still lies above all the guidance on day 4.
Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it could still be near hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region.
The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated Sunday and Monday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday.
The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding.
====================TD 14 Will Sail By Belize, Forecasts Say
Last night, we told you about Tropical Depression 14. That's the storm that formed several days ago off the coast of Nicaragua and quickly began gaining strength.
Forecast models were suggesting that could make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, which meant that Belize, specifically the northern districts, would have been experiencing tropical storm force winds and large volumes of rain.
Well, the updated information on this storm suggests that its path has shifted a bit more east, which means Belize may not be as heavily impacted, as was initially feared. But, you should still prepare for bad weather, related to this system's outer bands.
The experts believe that once it crosses over the Yucatan, it with gather strength from the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and it will then head to the southern coast of the United States as a category 1 hurricane.
A hurricane watch is in effect for Punta Herrito to Cancun, Mexico. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras and that same area of Punta Herrito to Cancun, Mexico. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the north and west of Cancun, all the way to Dzilam de Bravo, Mexico.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast by tomorrow afternoon. Hurricane conditions are also possible later in the day.
This afternoon, the center of TD-14 was located over the Western Caribbean Sea about 180 miles east-northeast of Isla Roatan, Honduras. Its maximum sustained winds are near 35 miles per hour, with higher gusts.Channel 7