|
|
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
|
OP
|
September 25, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
The weather over the Northwest Caribbean, Yucatan and Belize remains moist.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs: Cloudy skies will accompany early morning and late afternoon showers and thundershowers. Sunny breaks will occur. Winds will be east northeasterly or variable at less than 10 Kts. Sea state will be smooth to light chop.
The outlook is for partly cloudy skies, warm temperatures and isolated showers through Tuesday.
Western and Central Caribbean:
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN... AND THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONED ALONG 73W/74W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE COLOMBIA/ VENEZUELA BORDER FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 71W-75W.
Eastern Caribbean:
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.
A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE MIGHT BE A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS THAT THERE IS SURFACE CIRCULATION.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 62W-68W MOVING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE VENEZUELAN ISLANDS AND MAINLAND COAST AND HEADING TOWARDS THE ABC ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 58W-63W. TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
TRADE WINDS HAVE ESSENTIALLY BROKEN DOWN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND MOST OF THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5-10 KT IN THE E/CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT LOW SURFACE PRESSURES MAY BE FORMING OVER OR NEAR THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WED AND THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUE ...AND TO A PSN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE SW GULF BY THURSDAY WHERE MODELS SUGGESTS IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
|
OP
|
September 26, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
The weather over the Northwest Caribbean, Yucatan and Belize remains moist.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs: Partly cloudy skies will continue with warm temperatures. Winds will be east southeasterly 5 to 15 Kts. Sea state will be smooth to light chop.
The outlook is for cloudy skies, warm temperatures and widely scattered showers on Tuesday.
Western and Central Caribbean:
W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.
AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER CUBA NEAR 21N78W WITH AN INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. ANY CONVECTION/SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED MORE WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES RATHER THAN THE WAVE ITSELF.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AREA THROUGH TUE.
Eastern Caribbean:
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 16N TO OVER THE ABC ISLANDS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 70W IS FORECAST TO MOVE W ABOUT 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE W CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU AND FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
|
OP
|
September 27, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
The weather over the Northwest Caribbean, Yucatan and Belize remains moist.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs: Cloudy skies will gradually clear giving sunny withh warm temperatures. Winds will be east to southeast 5 to 15 Kts. Sea state will be light chop to choppy.
The outlook is for partly cloudy skies, warm temperatures and isolated showers on Wednesday.
Western and Central Caribbean:
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W WITH AN TROUGH EXTENDING N/S S OF 30N INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF AREA THROUGH TUE.
THE AREA IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N82W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO N OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N85W AND AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
AN UPPER HIGH IS SW OF THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W AND COVERS A MAJOR PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA E OF 65W WITH THE GREATEST INTENSITY ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W.
TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVING ALONG AT 10-15 KT. BEHIND/EAST OF THE WAVE...WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA WHICH WAS SHOWING A FEW 15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN 65W-70W.
A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO INCREASING WINDS IS A TROPICAL WAVE AND DEVELOPING LOW OVER NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE WEEK WHICH COULD INCREASE PRES GRADIENT.
Eastern Caribbean:
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 20N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 14N74W HAS DISSIPATED.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 75.5W FROM 13N-16N AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 77W FROM 12N-17N.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
|
OP
|
September 28, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
More active tropical weather development occurring over the Northwest Caribbean, Yucatan and Belize. A tropical wave and upper level support is responsible for thunderstorms and squalls occurring locally overnight and A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs: Cloudy skies mixed with sunny periods. Widely scattered showers and thundershowers will occur mainly in the late evening and early morning hours. Winds will be variable in occasional squalls or east to northeast 5 to 15 Kts. Sea state will be generally light chop but it will become rough in strong thundershowers and occasional squalls.
SMALL CRAFT AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD OBSERVE CAUTION WHILE OPERATING IN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
The outlook is for continuing cloudy and squally weather and warm temperatures on Thursday and Friday.
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 21N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING WNW NEAR 12 KT. THIS AREA STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 78W-81W.
LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO BE WATCHED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCURRR AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY W-NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH FORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA THIS WEEKEND.
Western and Central Caribbean:
AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 22N82W AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 19N86W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER HAITI NEAR 19N74W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST INTENSITY S OF HAITI FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W.
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 21N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING WNW NEAR 12 KT.
Eastern Caribbean:
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN JUST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 13N E OF 67W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 60W-68W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
|
OP
|
September 29, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
Moist air and slightly unstable conditions will maintain cloudy skies and isolated showers and thundershowers over Yucatan and Belize.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Cloudy skies mixed with sunny periods. Isolated showers and thundershowers will occur mainly in the late evening and early morning hours. Winds will be variable or from the east to northeast 5 to 15 Kts. Sea state will be generally light chop.
The outlook is for continuing cloudy weather and warm temperatures on Friday.
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 81W IS NOW A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 16N81W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. ORGANIZATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W.
Western and Central Caribbean:
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 17N80W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS IN THIS AREA. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER HAITI AND E CUBA N OF 18N BETWEEN 72W-77W.
THE LOW CENTER NEAR 16N81W AT 0000 UTC (6 P.M. LOCAL TIME) HAS SHOWN SLOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...WITH NEW SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY FORMING WELL N OF LOW BETWEEN JAMAICA...CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS ARE VERY SLOW TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM.
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE...EXCEPT OVER S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY APPROACH 20 KT.
Eastern Caribbean:
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N56W SOUTHWARD TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 21N58W INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL AND THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N61W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS GENERATING SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N65W ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO 11N60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
|
OP
|
September 30, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
A broad area of low pressure and disturbed weather conditions will maintain overcast skies and scattered showers and thundershowers over the Northwest Caribbean, Belize and The Yucatan Peninsula.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Skies will be mainly Cloudy to overcast accompanied by scattered showers and thundershowers . Winds will be westrly 5 to 15 Kts. but with occasional gusts above 25 kts in the heavier showers. Sea state will be choppy to moderate.
Small craft and Marine interests should exercise caution while operating in coastal waters and should continue to monitor for information on the area of disturbed weather in the Extreme Western Caribbean.
The outlook is for continuing cloudy to Overcast conditions and scattered showers thru Saturday and Sunday.
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
W CARIBBEAN 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N81.5W DRIFTING W. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED BUT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS AREA STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20.5N BETWEEN 73.5W-83W INCLUDING JAMAICA.
Western and Central Caribbean:
CARIBBEAN FLOW IS GIVING S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE DRIFTING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND COVERS ALL BUT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1007 MB LOW AND GENERATING BROAD AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-16.5N BETWEEN 81.5W-87.5W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREA OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS AND A SMALLER AREA FROM 12N-14.5N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
Eastern Caribbean:
E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS IN THE LOW CLOUDS N OF PUERTO RICO. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADALOUPE TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N INLAND OVER VENEZUELA W OF TRINIDAD TO 64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE NE CARIBBEAN.
Northern Caribbean:
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 78W AND SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS S AND IN THE W ATLC NE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N76W OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N66W.
|
|
|
|
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 732
|
|
odds are SLIM (none is prob more accurate), but let's hope there's no ironic 5 year anniversary events to contend with!!! On this date 5 years ago, I'm sure Marty was glued to the internet watching a pesky struggling tropical depression that all of a sudden decided to get its act together such that it earned the name Kieth!
|
|
|
|
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 8,868
|
OP
|
October 1, 2005 (6:00 am) SAN PEDRO WEATHER DISCUSSION by Winston Panton (with excerpts from the Regional Hurricane Center)
TODAY'S FORECAST
low pressures and disturbed weather conditions still favour overcast skies and scattered showers and thundershowers over Belize as it slowly moves northwest over the Yucatan Peninsula.
San Pedro and Caye Caulker will experience for the next 24 hrs:
Skies will be Cloudy to overcast with occassional showers and thundershowers. Winds will vary from westerly through south easterly 5 to 15 Kts.. Sea state will be light choppy.
The outlook is for continuing cloudy conditions and isolated showers through Sunday and Monday.
TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
North Western Caribbean:
THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTR IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W AND MOVING NW ABOUT 5 KT. PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND A BURST OF CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES OVER YUCATAN.
Eastern Atlantic:
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, NUMGER NINETEEN, HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12.3N 2.9W...OR 660 MILES WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AT 01/0300 UTC (9 PM LOCAL TIME) MOVING NW 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
North West Caribbean:
A WEAK UPPER LOW SITS JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N87W DRIFTING SLOWLY W AND HAS ALLOWED CARIBBEAN MOISTURE OVER CUBA TOWARDS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS.
A 1006 MB LOW...THE SPECIAL FEATURE...IS LOCATED NEAR 19N85W CAUSING A BURST OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS STILL WITHIN A POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA AND WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY IN THE W CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
Central Caribbean:
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. IT HAS NO CLEAR TSTM PATTERN BUT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SPECKLED ACROSS THE REGION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W-76W.
Eastern Caribbean:
THE E CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES...E OF ABOUT 67W...ARE UNDER THE STABLE REGIME OF AN UPPER LOW NE OF THE AREA AND ITS TRAILING TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS TO ISLA MARGARITA...SO SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. MEANWHILE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE E CARIBBEAN.
|
|
|
S |
M |
T |
W |
T |
F |
S |
|
|
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
14
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
19
|
20
|
21
|
22
|
23
|
24
|
25
|
26
|
27
|
28
|
29
|
30
|
31
|
|
|
0 members (),
108
guests, and
0
robots. |
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
Forums44
Topics79,205
Posts500,032
Members20,472
|
Most Online7,413 Nov 7th, 2021
|
|
|
|
|