Just a quick update on the latest model runs: The 18Z (2 pm EDT) runs of the GFS and GFDL models have swung back towards Florida, and predict that the Yucatan may only get a quick (but severe) blow. The amount of weakening that might happen with Wilma over the Yucatan for just 12 hours or so is difficult to gauge. Also, there is the possibility of a threat to New England--the latest GFDL model run has Wilma hitting the Cape Cod area as a Category 2 hurricane on Monday night. I'll wait for the 00Z (8pm EDT) runs of the models that will be available in the morning before commenting more. The degree of uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast of Wilma remains very high.

Jeff Masters