Posted By: SteveGregory at 3:47 AM GMT on October 19, 2005


Once I confirmed that there was much a do about nothing with this 'radical track change' talked about earlier by others -- I
had to conduct some other business and just skipped the 8PM update. I'll be issuing a new, full update during by midnight
{Chicago time). The next RECON just took off about 30 minutes ago m- and I'll stay up for the first Vortex reading -- and
that's about it.

Bottom line -- the track is pretty much back where it was - not going inland into the Yucatan and thrashing around for 2
days. The only basic thing that has changed, but we saw that in the 12Z run this morning, was a generally slower speed
during the first 72 hours. So landfall in Florida is delayed by up to 24 hours or so. But it is still 4 days away.

Likely to be a low end Cat 3 Major hurricane. The NHC Track they just issued is exactly what I would of issued.

Be back with a full update around 11:45PM