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Belize Weather Forecast: June 28, 2013

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Relatively dry conditions prevailing.
Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and partly cloudy tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated, except for a few more in the south tonight.
Winds: East 5-15 knots.
Marine Forecast: Today: Winds: East 5-15 kts. Seas: Light chop - choppy. Waves: 2-4 ft. Isolated showers or thunderstorms. Outlook: Winds: East 5-15 kts. Seas: Light chop - choppy. Waves: 2-4 ft. Isolated showers or thunderstorms.
Sea Surface Temp (°F): 83
Outlook: (Sat & Sat night) Similar weather conditions.

Tropical Weather Outlook: Tropical cyclone formation not expected during the next 48 hours.
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WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR BELIZE
June 24-July 1, 2013

SYNOPSIS for 6:00am Tuesday, June 24, 2013: RESIDUAL INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST EASTERLY AIRFLOW INDUCED BY A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MODERATE SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND IN THE SOUTH OF BELIZE THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, SUPRESSING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS BELIZE THIS WORKING WEEK. THE APPRAOCH AND PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONE AND OVER SOUTHERN DISTRICTS.

TROPICAL WEATHER SCENARIO: A 1023 MB WEST-ATLANTIC HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N60W HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NORTH-WESTERN CARIBBEAN, PUTTING A WEAK LID ON ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND BELIZE. HOWEVER, A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SOME LOCALIZED SHOWERS TODAY. TWO TROPICAL WAVES IN THE CARIIBEAN THIS MORNING ARE HEADING WESTWARDS AT 10-15 MPH. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN AND BELIZE BY FRIDAY AND THE SECOND BY TUESDAY MORNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR INCREASING SHOWERS OVER NORTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND BELIZE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK: THE GFS FORECAST MODEL INITIATED AT MIDNIGHT LASTNIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH THE NEXT24-144-HR IS RESOLVING LESS RAINFALL ACTIVITY OVER BELIZE THIS WORKING WEEK, BUT INCREASES THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY THIS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL TROPICS HAZARDS AND BENEFITS OUTLOOK (SEE BELOW) IS PROJECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE PERIOD JUNE 26- JULY 02, 2013, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PHASE OF THE MJO MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE DURING THIS PERIOD.

DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10-0.25 OF-AN-INCH ARE PROJECTED OVER MOST DISTRICTS DURING THE REST OF THIS WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES OF 0.50-0.75 OF-AN-INCH OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND SOUTHERN DISTRICTS. DAILY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RANGING FROM 0.50-1.25 INCH OVER THESE AREAS, WITH LOWER RATES OF 0.25-0.50 OF-AN-INCH ELSEWHERE OVER THE COUNTRY. EXPECT HIGHER DAILY AMOUNTS IN THE ORDER OF 1.50-2.50 INCHES IN THE EXPOSED ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE CAYO, STANN CREEK AND TOLEDO DISTRICTS.

RFrutos
Meteorologist/Hydrologist
June 24, 2013

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