October 1, 2005 / 12:05AM CDT
RAPIDLY FORMING CYCLONE IN CARIBBEAN?
The bottom line is that even if we finally have formed a depression, it will not likely be able to reach Tropical storm intensity before moving across the Yucatan
The tropical low, strong wave, almost depression -- is now either a very large area of showers and gusty thunderstorms, or is
undergoing rapid development and intensification.
The reason for my late update was the sudden development of a very strong, circular area of thunderstorms exactly where the
low level circulation center was located. In the past 3 hours, the buoy located near 20N/85W has shown a dramatic and steady
increase in winds and seas -- and is now reporting SUSTAINED ESE winds of 25mph, with gusts to 32mph, and seas have
increased to 7 feet. Based on the latest satellite imagery, the center appears to be located near 19N/85.8W or 120NM SE of
Further away from the center and burst of intense convection, there are widely scattered regions of showers and
thunderstorms, with are large area of thunderstorms already over the Yucatan itself. The latest shear chart from 03Z (10PM
CDT) depicts shear values of under 5Kts over the area where a the Tropical low - and possibly depression, is located. In
addition to the very broad area of anticyclonic flow aloft, there are now 2 centers of anticyclonic flow. One over the low
level circulation, and one over the Yucatan. The entire area of showers and thunderstorms continues moving generally WNW at
about 6KTs, and the latest model data moves the system across the Yucatan during the weekend, and will be in the Gulf
on Monday. Most of the guidance shows the system eventually moving across the Gulf and reaching the coast upper Mexico
Gulf coast, south of Texas by Wednesday.
The bottom line is that even if we finally have formed a depression, it will not likely be able to reach Tropical storm intensity
before moving across the Yucatan, and once in the Gulf, will find itself surrounded by an abundance of very dry air that
dominates most of the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC has scheduled a RECON for tomorrow afternoon, but based on the current
imagery and surface reports, they may move that up to an earlier time (around 11AM).