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Ernesto closing in on the Yucatan
Jeff Masters

2:19 PM GMT on August 07, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto is closing in on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Latest data from the Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the pressure had dropped to its lowest value yet--988 mb at 9:12 am EDT. Top surface winds as seen by their SFMR instrument were in the 60 - 65 mph range, and the plane found 72 mph winds at their flight level of 5,000 feet, on the northeast side of the eye. Ernesto does not have an eyewall, but the Hurricane Hunters noted an eyewall may be the process of forming, from the north to the south-southeast side of the center. Visible and infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms have expanded in areal extent and intensity to form a Central Dense Overcast (CDO), a feature of intensifying tropical storms. Ernesto is encountering light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The dry air that mixed into Ernesto's core and disrupted it on Monday is no longer apparent on water vapor satellite loops.

Winds at the Yucatan Basin buoy, about 140 miles north of the 10 am EDT position of Ernesto, were sustained at 34 mph, gusting to 40 mph, at 10 am EDT. Winds along the north coast of Honduras have been light the past day, and a personal weather station on Roatan Island off the north coast of Honduras picked up 1.51" of rain from Ernesto as of 10 am EDT. Sporadic heavy rains from Ernesto's outer spiral bands have affected Belize City, Belize most of the morning; these bands can be seen on Belize radar.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto does not have an eyewall, and this will severely limit the storm's chances of rapid intensification until the storm can build one. However, Ernesto is under light wind shear and over warm ocean waters of 29°C with very high heat content, so some modest intensification to a Category 1 hurricane is possible before landfall occurs near midnight tonight near the Belize/Mexico border. Heavy rains will be the main threat from Ernesto. The storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and its winds will probably diminish by 15 - 25 mph. once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. I expect Ernesto will increase its winds by 15 - 25 mph while over the Bay of Campeche, and the storm could be near Category 1 hurricane strength when it makes a second landfall near Veracruz, Mexico.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Sotrm Ernesto, taken at 11:35 am EDT August 6, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

NEMO Public Advisory # 7

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO

TIME: 6:00 P.M.
LOCATION: 17.8N 84.4W and EAST SOUTH EAST of BELIZE 250 MILES
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WEST NORTH WEST AT 13 MPH

Hurricane Warning Red II is in effect for the entire Coast of Belize. Tropical Storm Ernesto has the potential to further strengthen to a Hurricane later tonight.

Ernesto is expected to produce accumulation of 3-5 inches. These rains are likely to cause dangerous FLASH FLOODS. If you live in an area subjected to flood, NEMO advises you to be prepared to quickly move your family and belongings to safety.

NEMO will be opening shelters in the North for those who are evacuating and seeking safety at 12:00 midday. If you are going to Shelters take along FOOD and WATER. Public Officers must be ready to report to their respective shelters.

• The last vessel will leave San Pedro at 1:30 p.m. The harbour will be closed at 3:00 p.m. Small Craft should seek safe harbour. All vessels must remain in port. NEMO advises the general public not to go to sea. The swing bridge will be swung at 1:30 p.m.
• Business Companies and stores should be closed down at 1:00 p.m. today.
• The Coast Guard has been warning and encouraging people to move inland from the Cayes. This morning 176 people were evacuated from San Pedro. The UB Gymnasium has been prepared to shelter the evacuees.
• Areas of concern are: Hattieville, Western Paradise, Belize City, Lord's Bank, Ladyville northwards to Sand Hill and Maskal. Rural areas in Orange Walk and Corozal Districts including: Bomba, Progresso, Copper Bank, Chunox up to Sarteneja.
• Persons living in Coastal areas in particular are encouraged to put up shutters. Additional public transportation will be made available by the bus operators to assist the public moving inland.

NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Tropical Storm Ernesto.

Ernesto Approaching Belize and Yucatan
Accuweather

Aug 7, 2012 9:54 AM

Tropical Storm Ernesto is located at 17.8° N, 84.4° W with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, gusting to 75 mph

Ernesto remains a strong tropical storm this morning as it tracks north of Honduras and approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Ernesto is packing winds of 65 mph and will slowly strengthen as it continues to move to the west-northwest. Ernesto will maintain this track which will take the storm parallel with the north coast of Honduras affecting the very popular Bay Islands and northern Honduras today. Impacts on Honduras and the Bay Islands will be heavy rainfall mostly along and near coastal Honduras. The higher terrain of Honduras which is much farther inland might get a few hours of heavy rainfall. Still it could rain enough to cause some mudslides, especially in some of the deforested areas.

We still expect Ernesto to move west-northwest tonight and make landfall over Belize as a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane during the overnight hours. The storm will weaken as it tracks westward across the southern Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday. The biggest impact across this area will be torrential rainfall. We are expecting a general 4-8 inches of rain over much of Belize, the southern Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala with some localized 12-inch rainfall amounts in the higher terrain. The storm will have an opportunity to move back over water in the southernmost Bay of Campeche late Wednesday and Wednesday night which could sustain the storm for another landfall in southeast Mexico Thursday. Little, if any, restrengthening is expected as the storm crosses the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical waves near 64 west and just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands remain disorganized, and no development is expected in the next 24 hours. However, we will continue to monitor these areas for slow development this week. Another strong tropical wave is projected to move off the coast of Africa late in the week. This system will be a feature to keep an eye on.

The remnants of former Tropical Storm Florence will drift westward and pass just northeast of the Leeward Islands Wednesday into Thursday. This system succumbed to cooler water, dry air and shear, the three variables that are the biggest limiting factors in tropical storm formation and development. We do not expect these remnants to reorganize.

Click here for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

A dab more dry air please to keep this baby disorganized and eyeless, and Ernesto? I'll thank you very much to keep sliding north of us along those new probability lines...

Wow - some amount of rain!

NEMO PRESS RELEASE # 8

 

Shelters that will be open in the Corozal District are as follows:

 

 

 

Shelters that will be open in the Orange Walk District are as follows:

 

Dam situation:� There is no threat of flooding from the Dams along the Macal River.��

Fuel:� NEMO hereby advises that all persons needing to refuel their vehicle they need to do so.

 

NEMO advices business companies and store owners in Corozal, Orange Walk, San Pedro and Caye Caulker to be reminded that they must release their staff if they desire to go home and secure their family.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...

THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

//ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/392196/ for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

Good story on the hurricane prep in San Pedro in San Pedro Scoop, HERE

Watch live streaming from Corozal at http://www.justin.tv/pjonesbz

Current Satellite Views

Here is a 12:00 pm update for Ernesto. Ernesto is now a Cat I hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. The midday Hurrevac trajectory has Hurricane Ernesto making landfall a bit farther north from the earlier track. Ernesto can still strenghten more before making landfall north of Majahual late tonight and early Wednesday. Hurricane force winds exten out to 25 miles from the center most in the north and NE quadrant, while TS force winds extend upto 140 miles or just over 2 degrees of latitude around the center. This means that if Ernesto makes landfall at the projected point, then northern Belize will be on the southern periphery of the TS winds. Gale force winds less than 39 mph will affect other areas to the south of the central Orange Walk district. However, torrential rainfall will sweep across, with total accumulation of some 10-12 inches particularly in the elevated terrain of the Maya Mountain massif, by the time this is all over on Thursday or early Friday. Elsewhere total rainfall will be in the range of 4-8 inches. So, the potential is still there for inundations over northern and central Belize and flash floods in the hilly terrain.

The high resolution IR images attached, indicate very cold cloud tops (white) in the cloud mass which is becoming very structured around the center, with the formation of a major feeder band in the SE quadrant. This is indicative of an intensifying storm.

Compared to Hurricane Dean which was a Cat V hurricane with wind in excess of 155 mph on August 21, 2007, which made land fall a bit farther south than the projected landfall point of hurricane Ernesto, the impact on Belize was confined mostly to the Corozal District and resulted mostly from wind effects. As we can recall, Hurricane Dean did not produced a lot of rainfall over Belize, so the floodind of the Rio Hondo and other tributaries was minimal or non existent. In the case of Ernesto, the rainfall is expected to be much more, hence the possibility of flash floods and inundation in the flood plains of the Rio Hondo and the New River.

Overcast in Belize City, some drizzle, but not much, light breeze.

Have a great afternoon.

RFrutos

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE
CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HONDURAS.

ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX. GIVEN
THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...