Belize Weather Forecast: October 13, 2019

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#538731 10/13/19 05:43 AM

Joined: Oct 1999

Posts: 84,398

oregon, spr

Marty

Marty

Belize Weather Forecast: October 13, 2019

General Situation:
Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post!
Belize NMS: Present Condition: Clear in the north, cloudy in the south. Generally fair weather prevails. Changes come later today. Advisories: None.
24-hour forecast: Sunny with cloudy spells today and cloudy skies tonight. Showers or thunderstorms will be isolated, then will increase over the south this afternoon, spreading to the rest of the country tonight.
Winds: East-Northeast | 5-15 kts, Sea State: Light Chop
Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 87
Outlook: For Monday and Monday night is for showery and very wet conditions across the country.
Tropical Weather Outlook: A broad area of low pressure is forming over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some development is possible if the low remains over water while moving near our coast. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely over our area early next week. Click for more...

Marine Conditions:

	Winds	Seas	Waves	Details
Today	E-NE 5-15 kts	Light Chop	2-4 ft	ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
Tonight	E 5-15 kts	Light Chop	2-4 ft	A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASING.
Tomorrow	E-NE 10-20 kts	Moderate	4-6 ft	SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASING.
Outlook	E 10-20 kts	Moderate	4-6 ft	SEVERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

The Caribbean Sea

A 1008 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 09N81W. The low is forecast to move WNW toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. Regardless of development, this system could bring heavy rains to portions of Central America late this weekend through early next week.

TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean and northern South America. The Pacific monsoon trough extends from Colombia westward across the SW Caribbean into northern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong convection covers the southern Caribbean mainly south of 17N and west of 75W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across most of the basin, except the south-central area where locally fresh winds are noted between 70W-82W.

A broad low pressure area just N of Panama will slowly move WNW through Central America during the next few days. Fresh to strong trade winds are likely over the western Caribbean and waters adjacent to Central America Mon and Tue. There is a low chance that this system could become a tropical cyclone before it exits the Caribbean.

	High	Low
Coastal	31° C 87° F	26° C 78° F
Inland	32deg; C 90° F	22° C 72° F
Hills	27° C 80° F	20° C 68° F

TIDES:
High: 9:47 AM	Low: 3:56 PM
High: 9:46 PM	Low: 4:18 AM (Mon)
Sunrise: 5:45 AM	Moonset: 5:31 AM
Sunset: 5:32 PM	Moonrise: 5:46 PM

Four Day Weather Outlook:

For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook.

Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook

Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO)

Ambergris Caye:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro

Philip S W Goldson International Airport:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today

Belmopan:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78

Caye Caulker:
http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 13, 2019 Marty #538732 10/13/19 05:44 AM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,398 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	...Heavy rainfall event for Central America... A 1008 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 09N81W. The low is forecast to move WNW toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. Regardless of development, this system could bring heavy rains to portions of Central America late this weekend through early next week. A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move west-northwestward toward Central America, and some development is possible if the low remains over water when it is near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize on Monday and Tuesday. Regardless of development, this system could bring heavy rains to portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Over the southwestern Caribbean, an area of low pressure has formed amid a broad counter-clockwise wind pattern, known as a gyre. "This area of low pressure will track into or along the north coast of Central America early this week," Kottlowski said. If the system's circulation remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of Honduras for a time, there will be a better chance for it to become an organized tropical system. Drenching showers and thunderstorms are likely over portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula into Tuesday, even if an organized tropical system fails to form. This disturbance is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the Bay of Campeche by midweek. Here, there may be another opportunity for it to organize. Regardless, drenching flooding rainfall will be possible in portions of eastern Mexico during the second half of the week. Some of this rain could be drawn northward into the western Gulf Coast. For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 13, 2019 Marty #538733 10/13/19 07:03 AM
Joined: Dec 2006 Posts: 13,675 San Pedro Belize elbert
elbert	On Ambergris Caye this morning the sea around our barrier reef is calm with a breeze from the NE at 5 mph. The sky is clear and it's sunny with an expected high temperature of 86 f. White Sands Dive Shop https://whitesandsdiveshop.com/

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 13, 2019 Marty #538734 10/13/19 09:12 AM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,398 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	There is a lot of ITCZ type activity and swellups in the western Caribbean, fairly typical for this time of the year. So it looks as if we might, at last, start to get some more normal seasonal rain over the next few days. Rain already coming in to southern coastal regions. More patches of rain probably coming in to the rest of Belize during the day. That intense ITCZ activity just off San Salvador last night has reduced and moved off into the Pacific where there is a slight chance it could develop. There is presently, no indication of any development in the rain clouds in the Caribbean, but there might be something coming off Africa now. Hurricane center has a preliminary trajectory of the African system going well north and west. Not much chance of development at this point. Still should keep an eye on it. Looks like today will be sunny in the north this morning, but mainly cloudy for central and southern Belize, with increasing rain showers moving up from the south during the day. Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler ) Last night min. 23°C 74°F Yesterday max. 31°C 88°F Yesterday Rain 11.2 mm ( 0.44" )

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 13, 2019 Marty #538735 10/13/19 12:05 PM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,398 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	Present Condition: Partly Cloudy. Not as much rain as appeared originally, so far.

Re: Belize Weather Forecast: October 13, 2019 Marty #538736 10/13/19 07:30 PM
Joined: Oct 1999 Posts: 84,398 oregon, spr Marty OP
OP Marty	Tonight's picture, partly cloudy, still showing a lot of rain around, but no organisation. But we need to keep watching, because it could develop, only a small chance.