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Belize Weather Forecast: August 21, 2020 General Situation: Ambergris Caye: Conditions this morning by Elbert just before or after this post! Belize NMS: Present Condition: Mostly cloudy this morning, more so in the south. Fair weather prevails, but conditions are expected to become moist and unstable as Tropical Depression Fourteen moves east of the country during the next 24-48 hours. Advisories: *Residents, especially those inland, are advised to stay hydrated and avoid direct sunlight as much as possible.* 24-hour forecast: Cloudy at times today with isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms then mostly cloudy tonight with a few showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms especially over the north and along the coast. Winds: E, 5-10 kts Sea State: Slight Waves: 1-3 ft. Sea Surface Temperature (°f): 86 Outlook: A few showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms will continue to affect mostly northern and coastal areas Saturday increasing over most areas Saturday night. Sargassum Forecast from August 19, 2020 to August 25, 2020: Observations continue to show an abundance of sargassum mats making landfall on beaches across the country and this is expected to continue through to next week. San Pedro has a high probability and a major expected impact. Tropical Weather Outlook: At 6:00 am Tropical Depression 14, was centered near latitude 16.2N, longitude 84.2W, or about 160 miles east of Roatan, Honduras and 280 miles East Southeast of Belize City. The National Meteorological Service of Belize continues to closely monitor this system and the general public is advised to monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Depression 13 was centered near latitude 17.9N, longitude 59.2W, or about 255 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Click for more... Marine Conditions: The Caribbean Sea Tropical Depression Thirteen and Tropical Depression Fourteen are in the Caribbean.. Overnight scatterometer data shows moderate trades over the south-central Caribbean, with locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere outside of T.D. Fourteen, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin. Scattered thunderstorms are noted offshore of western Cuba, as well as from 13N to 15N between 75W and 77W. T.D. Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm near 16.3N 84.3W this afternoon, move to 17.7N 85.4W Sat morning, 19.2N 86.4W Sat afternoon, move inland over the Yucatan Peninsula to 20.7N 87.5W Sun morning, then move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico near 22.5N 88.8W Sun afternoon.   High Low Coastal 32° C 89° F 26° C 78° F Inland 36° C 96° F 22° C 72° F Hills 29° C 84° F 19° C 66° F TIDES: High: 11:32 AM Low: 6:07 PM High: 12:05 AM (Sat) Low: 6:07 AM (Sat) Sunrise: 5:37 AM Moonrise: 8:06 AM Sunset: 6:14 PM Moonset: 8:35 PM Four Day Weather Outlook: For more information, check the Daily Tropical Weather Outlook. Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook Belize National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) Ambergris Caye: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/san-pedro Philip S W Goldson International Airport: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belize/MZBZ?cm_ven=localwx_today Belmopan: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bz/belmopan/17.26%2C-88.78 Caye Caulker: http://cayecaulkerweather.com/weatherdata/caye-caulker-belize-live-weather-data.htm

Tropical Depression Fourteen

Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm later today and will impact parts of Central America and Mexico before reaching the western Gulf of Mexico, where it faces an uncertain future, but could affect parts of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts next week.

This system is in the Caribbean Sea, centered less than 50 miles east of Nicaragua and Honduras. It's located well to the west of Tropical Depression Thirteen, which is a separate system tracking through the Atlantic.

A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is anticipated by Friday afternoon. It will track near the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Friday.

Strengthening is likely and it is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The next two Atlantic tropical storm names are Laura and Marco.

A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning for portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Herrero northward to Cancun, Mexico.

For more on Tropical Depression 14, click here

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here



[b]TD14 Expected to Bring Rains over the Weekend![/b}

The National Meteorological Service is monitoring Tropical Depression fourteen. As of six this evening, TD-fourteen was about one hundred miles east of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border and four hundred and seventy-five miles East Southeast of Belize City. Earlier this afternoon, just after one we spoke with Deputy Chief Met Ronald Gordon about this developing system. He says it is expected to bring some rains, particularly for the north if it continues on track.

On the Phone: Ronald Gordon, Deputy Chief Meteorologist

"At six this morning, the National Hurricane Center was giving that system a ninety percent chance of developing into a tropical depression later today or tonight. And then three hours later, at nine the National Hurricane System began to issue advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, which as of twelve midday was located at latitude fifteen point four degrees north and longitude eighty point zero degrees west and the depression was moving to the west at eighteen miles per hour with maximum sustain winds of thirty-five miles per hour. The current
forecast for that system is for it to continue moving west at least through to the next twelve to twenty-four hours and eventually begin re-curving to the west-north-west and eventually north-west with the potential to make landfall on the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula late Saturday evening."

Andrea Polanco

"What kind of weather can Belize expect as a result?"

On the Phone: Ronald Gordon

"As if this forecast track pan out as the way it is at the moment, we expect that this system will come near enough to us to give us some rainfall over the weekend, starting from tomorrow, Friday and continuing through for much of the weekend. If the system follows the southern periphery of the cone of uncertainty, it would approach the extreme north of the country or be very near to the north of the country at landfall. However, as I mention, there is a level of uncertainty. So, that is the extreme southern periphery and the extreme north is that it could even avoid Yucatan and go through the Yucatan Channel. So, we need to be on the watch out for the potential of heavy rainfall and the possible gusty winds especially over the northern parts of the country if this system takes a more southerly track."

As we've noted that interview was after one this afternoon. Up to news time, TD-fourteen was moving to the west at seventeen miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of thirty-five miles per hour. The National Meteorological Service of Belize advises the public to monitor the progress of this system and listen to official sources for weather updates.

Channel 5

On Ambergris Caye this morning boat traffic has stopped. The breeze is from the NE at 4 mph. Expectation of the oncoming storm makes for an eerie quiet on the island and the waters around our barrier reef.

The high level winds from the SW have prevented that Caribbean Tropical Depression 14 from coming to Belize. It has developed a rotating centre, a very small centre, circled in red, which is being pushed northwards. A little bit of its swellup activity is being brought towards southern Belize by the easterly Caribbean wind.

Looks as if today will be mainly sunny, with cloud developing, more so in the south and there could be some rain in parts of the south. Not clear yet how this afternoon will be.



Temperatures in Belmopan : ( Coast usually cooler, hills even cooler )
Last night min. 26°C 78°F Yesterday max. 34°C 92°F Yesterday Rain 0 mm ( 0")

Only a few fires around.

Present Condition: Mostly clear, a few clouds in the northwest and south of Belize City. Not much air movement over Belize at present, but regular clouds are starting to form and could get heavy by this afternoon, and could cause some rain.. . This is nothing to do with the depression just off Honduras, which is slowly moving NNW but has a lot of swellup type clouds that will be going over western Cuba later today or tomorrow. But regular Caribbean easterly winds are causing swellups over Honduras/ Nicaragua

Generally fair weather prevails over most areas, but conditions expected to become moist and unstable later today and during the next 24-48 hours as tropical depression fourteen moves east of the country.
24hr Forecast: Cloudy at times with isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, becoming mostly cloudy tonight and tomorrow morning with a few showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms, especially over the north and along coastal areas.







Live Beach Cam at Blue Water Grill

Flood Forecast for August 21, 2020

River Conditions

REGION 7 - On the Blue Creek sub-catchment of the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, San Roman. and Douglas levels are above normal and steady. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia levels are above normal and steady.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels continues to recede at the Chalillo Mollejon and Vaca facilities. At Sari Ignacio, levels are below the low-level bridge and falling. The MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town is receding to near normal levels. On the BELIZE RIVER, levels at Banana Bank and Double Run are above normal and receding slowly. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON levels remain below the causeway and receding slowly.

REGION - River levels on the SIBUN RIVER near Freetown Sibun is above normal steady. Levels on the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village is normal and steady. The SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge is above normal and steady. The Swasey and Blades branch of the MONKEY RIVER is at normal levels and receding slowly. Levels are above normal and receding on the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls. The MOHO RIVER at Jordan and Blue Creek South is above normal and receding. Levels on the TEMASH RIVER near Crique Sarco is above normal and receding slowly.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER levels are above normal and steady.

WEEKEND FLOOD FORECAST

REGION 7 - Expect increasing levels on the Blue Creek sub-catchment of the RIO HONDO at Blue Creek and downstream at Santa Cruz, San Antonio, Sari Roman, and Douglas. On the NEW RIVER at Tower Hill and Caledonia levels are expected to increase.

REGION 9 - On the MACAL RIVER, reservoir levels are expected to increase at all dam facilities. At Sari Ignacio, levels are expected to increase to near flood stage. On the MOPAN RIVER at Benque Viejo Town, levels are expected to increase. Levels are expected to increase on the BELIZE RIVER at Banana Bank and Double Run. On the CROOKED TREE LAGOON levels are expected become steady then increase over the next few days.

REGION 11 - Expect increasing levels near Freetown Sibun on the SIBUN RIVER. On the SOUTHERN LAGOON near Gales Point Village, above nonrial levels are expected. On the SITTEE RIVER at Kendal Bridge levels is expected to increase to above normal levels. The Swasey and Blade') branch of the MONKEY RIVER is expected to increase to near flood stage. On the DEEP RIVER at Medina Bank levels is expected to increase. On the RIO GRANDE at San Pedro Columbia and Big Falls levels are expected to increase to near Flood Stage. Increasing levels is expected on the MOHO RIVER at Jordan and Blue Creek. On the TEMASH RIVER at Crique Sarco expect increasing levels.

REGION 13 - On the SARSTOON RIVER above nonrial levels is expected.

The Next Flood Report and Forecast will be issued on Monday August 24, 2020 at 12 noon.

Still not much air movement over Belize, but there were a couple of swellups, one in Guatamala just west of our border and one north of Chetumal. . . But now, as expected, there are clouds thickening over parts of belize and probably rain over parts of the mountains now, could be some down south and possible some soon in Orange Walk district.



You know we are in lockdown when the streets are this empty at 5:14 pm on a Friday evening. Photo by Tacogirl