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At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 84.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later this morning. Additional strengthening is expected before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

With the recent improvement in the outflow over Zeta, it appears that the shear that had prevented strengthening has abated. The shear ahead of the storm is expected to remain low while the cyclone traverses the deep, warm water of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As a result, Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane this morning, and continued strengthening is likely until Zeta moves over the Yucatan peninsula this evening. The landfall intensity is likely to be a little stronger than shown below since Zeta will be inland over the Yucatan peninsula by the 24-hour forecast point. Environmental conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are forecast to be conducive for some re-strengthening as Zeta moves over the south-central Gulf on Tuesday. Increasing shear and the cooler shelf waters of the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in intensity before Zeta reaches the northern Gulf coast.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Between Tuesday night and Thursday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches is expected across portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. The expected rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 85.6 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later today. Some weakening is likely while Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

After a significant strengthening episode early this morning, Zeta appears to have changed little in intensity recently. High spatial and temporal resolution GOES-16 visible satellite images indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located near the northwestern edge of the main area of vigorous deep convection. The current intensity estimate is held at 60 kt which is the average of recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Zeta in a few hours, and should provide a better estimate of the strength of the storm.

Zeta is moving northwestward, or about 305/9 kt. A mid-level high pressure area centered just east of Florida should steer the tropical cyclone on a continued northwestward heading for the next day or so, taking center over the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. By around 48 hours, Zeta is expected to turn northward over the Gulf along the western side of the high. Afterward, a shortwave trough moving into the southern Plains should induce a turn toward the north-northeast and take the center inland over the southern United States. The system should then move fairly quickly northeastward across the eastern U.S. and emerge into the Atlantic by day 4. The official track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the west of the previous one but not quite as far west as the corrected model consensus.

Zeta is apparently experiencing some north-northwesterly shear given the displacement of the low-level center from the convection. However, this shear is expected to abate very soon, and the cyclone is likely to strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening should occur while Zeta interacts with land during the next 12 to 24 hours. The atmospheric and oceanic environment should be somewhat conducive while the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two, and the official forecast shows some re-strengthening in 24-36 hours. Later in the forecast period, when Zeta approaches the northern Gulf Coast, cooler shelf waters and some increase in southwesterly shear could cause some weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous ones and shows Zeta still near hurricane strength at landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, which is near or above most of the model guidance. Zeta is likely to become an extratropical cyclone when it emerges into the Atlantic, and be absorbed by a frontal system around the end of the forecast period.



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Crown Weather:

Zeta is about to move off of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico a little later this morning. Satellite imagery indicates that Zeta is a very well organized storm and I think that it will have no problems strengthening when it moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico from later today through Wednesday. I also think that, given the favorable environmental conditions, that Zeta will probably strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane with 100-110 mph winds by Wednesday.

A turn more to the northeast is also expected on Wednesday as a trough of low pressure to the west of Zeta turns the storm. This likely will bring the center of the Category 2 hurricane onshore first on the Mississippi Delta late Wednesday afternoon or early Wednesday evening and then finally onshore on the Mississippi and Alabama coastline with the center making landfall somewhere between Biloxi and Mobile during Wednesday evening as a Category 2 hurricane.

This means that hurricane conditions with wind gusts of 100 mph are likely across extreme southeastern Louisiana, much of southern Mississippi and southern Alabama from late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

Has, as expected, HURRICANE ZETA has re-developed and near to Cat.2 as it approaches New Orleans.



A couple of days ago I wrote this : The reason for that very erratic tracking by the weather people is because when this first started, it was not a storm, it was just a collection or mass of cloud drifting through the Caribbean, being pulled along by the normal Caribbean easterly air flow. But then it started to develop into a number of isolated ITCZ swellups.. . Quite often, when such a swellup has finished its rain, it then collapses, sometimes triggering another one. In this case, there were several significant ITCZ swellups, inter reacting with each other, but then starting to meet some cooler air coming down from the north, this then coupled with some high level typical SW winds from the Pacific, which then started a somewhat erratic beginnings of a rotation. . .

These ITCZ swellups continued, but got caught up with each other, collapsing and then others would form. . This means that the active area, is continually changing. But, in this case, they finally started to work together, this morning, forming a more consistent central active area, where I said it was, and not where they were saying. . . This started to collapse, and a new very fast acting swellup really went up this morning, on the NNW side of the previous areas, now shifting the centre of activity to the new area, where my red arrow point was. There are still two large active areas, but going round each other like a pair of ice skaters, one pulling the other, and a few smaller ones, but also influenced by outside causes, hence the direction it is now moving in.

That is the brief story of this hurricane so far.

Hugh Leyton