From Crown Weather:

Invest 97-L Still Has The Potential To Develop In The Western Caribbean Later This Week

Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Caribbean: An area of disturbed weather (Invest 97-L) seems to be slowly becoming better organized today in the eastern Caribbean. Satellite imagery indicates that the thunderstorm activity has increased again over the past few hours. With that said, the environment isn't very favorable right now for development due to wind shear conditions. Also, Invest 97-L is still moving at a fast forward speed, which is preventing development for now.

I still think that the combination of decreasing wind shear values and this system slowing down in forward speed will lead to an increasing chance for development by about Thursday and Friday once Invest 97-L reaches the western Caribbean. This means that I think that there is a decent chance that Invest 97-L will develop into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm in the western and northwestern Caribbean by about Friday into Saturday.

Taking A Look At Model Guidance - There is a lot of differences between the model guidance members on what may or may not happen with Invest 97-L. In addition, even the individual models themselves are flip flopping on their solutions with this disturbances. When the model guidance members are acting like this, it is best to use the ensemble guidance as they can weed out the noise.

The GFS ensemble model guidance shows a significant increase of its members forecasting development in the northwestern Caribbean by Friday night and Saturday morning. From there, the ensemble members split with the members showing a stronger storm forecasting a track north and north-northeastward towards the Mississippi, Alabama and Florida Panhandle coastline by Monday. The members that are showing a weaker storm show a system that tracks westward towards eastern Mexico and the lower Texas coast by about Tuesday.

The Canadian ensemble model guidance also seems to suggest development should occur in the northwestern Caribbean by about Friday. The ensemble members then spread out once in the Gulf of Mexico with solutions ranging from a track towards the Texas coast by about Tuesday all the way to a storm that tracks northeastward across the Florida Peninsula on Saturday and then up the East Coast of the United States on Sunday and Monday.

About 70 to 75 percent of the European ensemble model members forecast development in the northwestern Caribbean by about Friday into Saturday. Beyond this, the European ensemble model is similar to the Canadian ensemble model in that its solutions range everything from a track to the Texas coast to a track towards the northern and northeastern US Gulf Coast.

These differences are telling because they say to me that the uncertainty with Invest 97-L is high.

Here Are My Thoughts: I still think that slow development is likely over the next couple of days or so as Invest 97-L tracks across the eastern and central Caribbean.

I think that by Thursday and certainly Friday that we will see the development chances of Invest 97-L increase as the wind shear values will decrease and there will be increasing amounts of moisture. At this point, I think that there is about a 80 percent chance for tropical development by Friday in the northwestern Caribbean.

Turning to this weekend and beyond, I do think that Invest 97-L will likely track into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, however, where it goes after that will depend on the both the upper level weather pattern and this system's strength.

As I mentioned yesterday, I think that if Invest 97-L stays weak (tropical depression or a low to moderately strength tropical storm) it will be guided by the easterly low-level winds and guided towards eastern Mexico or the lower Texas coast by about Tuesday of next week.

On the other hand, if Invest 97-L is able to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a hurricane, it will be pulled northward by a weakness in the high pressure ridge and a lingering trough of low pressure. This means that it would track towards an area between southeastern Louisiana and the western coast of Florida early next week.

Bottom Line Is That even though Invest 97-L isn't doing a whole lot right now, we need to watch it very closely as it could be one of those "sleeper" systems that remain disorganized and stay undeveloped in the Caribbean and then all of a sudden develop and strengthen very quickly in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.

[Linked Image]

[Linked Image]

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