Invest 97-L Likely Will Develop In The Northwestern Caribbean Late This Week

From Crown Weather:

Invest 97-L Located Over The Eastern Caribbean: An area of disturbed weather (Invest 97-L) seems to be gradually becoming better organized today. Satellite imagery not only shows some deeper thunderstorm activity occurring, but also some hints of banding in the cloud pattern. In addition, radar imagery from Curacao reveals that any circulation Invest 97-L seems to be trying to tighten up as it pushes off of the northern coast of South America and towards the western Caribbean. This means that I think that Invest 97-L is very close to becoming a tropical depression & probably will be upgraded to one within the next day or two as it heads for the western and northwestern Caribbean.

Taking A Look At Model Guidance - It seems as if it's the global European and GFS model against all of the other models when it comes to forecasting of this disturbance. This is very frustrating because it makes me question my own analysis and makes me wonder if I'm missing something that these two models are seeing. At this point, I'm not putting much stock into these two models and their seemingly lack of development of Invest 97-L.

So, once again I'm going to use the ensemble guidance in my forecast of Invest 97-L to weed out the noise.

The GFS ensemble model guidance still shows a strong signal for tropical development from Invest 97-L by Friday night in the northwestern Caribbean. From there, the ensemble guidance members spread out with some members forecasting a north and northeastward track towards coastal Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle early next week. Other ensemble members show a track west-northwestward towards eastern Mexico and coastal Texas early next week.

The Canadian ensemble model guidance also strongly suggests Invest 97-L should develop into a tropical system by Friday in the northwestern Caribbean. The ensemble members then spread out with some of the members showing a track towards the Florida Panhandle by late this weekend. Other members show a track towards the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast by about Tuesday.

These differences are telling because they say to me that the uncertainty with Invest 97-L continues to be high.

The track model guidance seems strange to me too as the consensus guidance "loses" Invest 97-L in the western Caribbean at the end of this week.

Here Are My Thoughts: Even though Invest 97-L is undergoing increased organization and development, I think that the process to become a tropical depression and a tropical storm will still be slow to occur.

I still think that by Thursday and certainly Friday that we will see Invest 97-L develop into a tropical depression and very possibly a tropical storm in the northwestern Caribbean.

Turning to this weekend and beyond, while I do think that Invest 97-L is likely to track into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it's track is still highly uncertain & depends on the both the upper level weather pattern and this system's strength.

As I have mentioned previously, I think that if Invest 97-L stays weak (tropical depression or a low to moderately strength tropical storm) it will be guided by the easterly low-level winds and guided towards eastern Mexico or the lower/middle Texas coast by about Tuesday of next week.

On the other hand, if Invest 97-L is able to strengthen into a strong tropical storm or a hurricane in either the northwestern Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico, it will be pulled northward by a weakness in the high pressure ridge and a lingering trough of low pressure. This means that it would track towards an area between southeastern Louisiana and the western coast of Florida early next week.

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