Crown Weather:

Tropical Depression #14 Will Bring Tropical Storm Conditions To The Northern Yucatan Peninsula By Late Saturday

Tropical Depression #14:
8 am EDT/7 am CDT Statistics:
Location: 16.2 North Latitude, 84.2 West Longitude or about 160 miles to the east of Isla Roatan, Honduras.
Maximum Winds: 35 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 Millibars or 29.77 Inches.
Forward Movement: West-Northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph.

Tropical Depression #14 is very close to tropical storm strength. Even though it seems that TD 14 has a fairly well defined circulation, it lacks in deep convection near the center. With that said, there is banding noted on satellite imagery. This means that I do think that this system will be upgraded to a tropical storm as soon as this afternoon or tonight.

Gradual strengthening is then expected through Saturday before this system moves across the northern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday night. This means that tropical storm conditions are likely across the northern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

It is expected that Tropical Depression 14 will enter the southern Gulf of Mexico as probably a tropical storm. There are uncertainties, however, as to how much TD 14 will strengthen as it tracks northward across the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected that wind shear is expected to increase by Monday night and Tuesday across the northern Gulf of Mexico and this will likely lead to any strengthening to stop.

Another thing that will affect the track and strength of TD 14 is its interaction with TD 13/Laura. This interaction could lead to Laura pushing TD 14 further west towards eastern Mexico or allow TD 14 to speed up and strengthen and head for southern and southeastern Louisiana. The interaction between 2 systems this close together in the Gulf of Mexico is extremely rare and there are more unknowns than knowns on what may happen.

Bottom Line Is That it is likely that TD 14 will move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday as a tropical storm and may try to strengthen into a hurricane as it tracks towards either the Texas or Louisiana coast.

I urge everyone along the Texas and Louisiana coast to prepare as if a hurricane is coming on Tuesday. The uncertainties with TD 14 are very large and impacts along the Texas and Louisiana coast could be anything from just some squally weather to a full-blown major hurricane.

For more information, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here