NOAA Outlook for Central America June 23 - 29, 2016

Seasonal to slightly above-average rainfall forecast during the next week.

During the past week, heavy rainfall was observed much of Guatemala, western El Salvador, and the eastern slopes of Honduras and Nicaragua. In Guatemala, flooding and affected people have been reported over many local areas of the country, including the Escuintla, Zacapa, and Quetzaltenango departments, following abundant rain during the past two weeks. Meanwhile, light to moderate rainfall fell across the interior of Honduras and northern Nicaragua. Despite the recent onset of seasonal rainfall, the northern two-thirds of Guatemala, much of Honduras, central El Salvador, and central Nicaragua have accumulated thirty-day rainfall deficits between 50-200 mm. In western Guatemala, the delayed onset and erratic distribution of rainfall have already resulted in wilted, early-planted crops. A favorable distribution of seasonal rainfall is needed to mitigate dryness and ensure proper development of crops over many local areas.

During the next week, seasonal to slightly above-average rainfall is forecast over Central America, with heavy rain across southern Guatemala, the Gulf of Fonseca, Gulf of Honduras, and Atlantic coastlines of Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is also expected throughout the inland of region. The forecast rainfall may help reduce or eliminate moisture deficits over some areas, though the consistent rainfall could also trigger flooding or exacerbate conditions over previously-flooded and saturated areas.


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