NOAA Outlook for Central America October 06 - October 12, 2016

Broad suppression of rain was observed over the entire region this past week.

Erratic rainfall performance across most of the region continued last week, upholding regional abnormal dryness concerns.

Over the last 7 days, rains were light and scattered across the most of the region. Western/central Nicaragua, especially, saw little precipitation. TRMM estimates indicate that the greatest rain totals (>100mm) fell over parts of southern Honduras and El Salvador. Moderate rains were also observed around the Gulf of Belize, southern Guatemala, and in Costa Rica and Panama. The overall pattern was that of suppressed rainfall for the majority of the Central American region. Significant negative anomalies were prevalent for the week. Over the course of the past month, the 'Postrera' season has generally been a little dryer than normal, with scattered pockets of more wet conditions. The driest area as indicated by observed rainfall and soil moisture is central Nicaragua and is the place to keep a closer eye on. The situation is helped by a frequent distribution of rain events across the region. Satellite vegetation health products indicate that conditions on the ground are still mostly favorable.

Rain is forecasted to be slightly below average for northern and eastern portions of Central America. Above-average rain is forecasted to the south and west. The greatest amounts of rain (>150mm) will likely be found in Pacific facing department of Nicaragua and to the south in Costa Rica and Panama. Predominately light rain for areas of central Guatemala and northern Honduras, might be welcome after some recent flooding concerns in those areas.


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