NOAA Outlook for Central America September 8 - 14, 2016

Strengthening moisture deficits observed over parts of El Salvador.

In late August and early September, a widespread distribution of moderate to locally heavy rainfall accumulations was received over much of Central America. According to satellite rainfall estimates, the highest weekly accumulations (>100mm) were registered over western Guatemala, with pockets of comparable amounts over southern Honduras, and the Gulf of Nicoya regions of Costa Rica. Since early August, changes in the Postrera rainfall performance have been observed. Increased and more frequent rainfall has been observed over central portions of Guatemala and central Honduras, which has helped to alleviate residual dryness and moisture deficits resulting from the suppressed rains during the Primera season. Conversely, strengthening moisture deficits have been observed throughout southern and eastern parts of El Salvador. Although satellite rainfall estimates have depicted low and unseasonably erratic rains throughout central and western Nicaragua, ground reports indicate no negative impacts on cropping activities in Nicaragua.

During the next week, average to above-average seasonal precipitation is expected across much of the Pacific Basin of Central America, with the potential for suppressed rainfall totals over portions of central and northern Guatemala. This forecast is expected to help mitigate both short-term and seasonal moisture deficits over El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. While models do show the passages of easterly wave disturbances in the Atlantic, no tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact Central America for the next seven days.


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