NOAA Outlook for Central America November November 24 - 30, 2016

Tropical Storm Otto over the southwestern Caribbean Sea could impact portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica during the next outlook period.

Heavy downpours expected along the Atlantic coasts and southern parts of Central America.

During the past week, suppressed rain prevailed over much of Central America. However, moderate to heavy rain was received along the Atlantic coasts of eastern Honduras, Nicaragua, and over the Southern Caribbean. In Costa Rica and Panama, this past week's torrential rain triggered flooding, resulting in many affected people over several areas, according to media reports. An analysis of cumulative rain since late October to date has indicated dryness, with moderate to large rain deficits over central Guatemala, much of Honduras, central Nicaragua, and northern Costa Rica. In contrast, wetness, with small to moderate surpluses have been observed over parts of southwestern Guatemala, eastern El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua, the Atlantic Basin of Nicaragua, and the Southern Caribbean. As the second season rain is coming to an end, rain is expected to subside throughout much of Central America. This may worsen conditions on the ground over areas, already affected by dryness. Conversely, the continuation of abundant rain could also exacerbate conditions over saturated areas such as local parts of the Southern Caribbean.

During the next outlook period, Tropical Storm Otto, located to the east southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua, is expected to intensify into hurricane force and move west northwestward, potentially making landfall and impacting southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. This, therefore, increases risks for flooding, landslides, an infrastructure damages over many local areas of the region. Abundant rain is expected across northern Honduras and along the Atlantic Basin of Nicaragua, while limited, with little to light rain is forecast elsewhere. Farther south, torrential rain is forecast to continue over Costa Rica and Panama and maintains elevated risks for flooding and mudslides over many areas of the region.


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