Rina Threatening Cancun and Cozumel
Accuweather

Oct 25, 2011 5:10 PM

Hurricane Rina to Impact Cancun, Cozumel

Hurricane Rina is a Category 2 Hurricane located at 17.4° N, 84.3° W with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, gusting to 130 mph

Hurricane Rina is expected to continue to increase in size and strength prior to nearing Cancun and Cozumel, Mexico, later this week.

Rina continues to gradually strengthen over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is still a category 2 hurricane, but its 110 mph winds are just below category 3 strength. Upper level winds will remain favorable for the next day or two as the storm slowly tracks toward the Yucatan Peninsula, so further strengthening remains likely and Rina will likely be a category 3 storm when it is in the vicinity of Cancun and Cozumel on Thursday.

The forecast for Rina's track and strength becomes much more challenging after Thursday. The eventual path that the hurricane will take depends on several different variables. The first factor to consider is how much strength that Rina will lose while interacting with land near the Yucatan Peninsula. Should Rina maintain most of its strength through Thursday night, it will likely be steered more by upper level west-southwesterly winds that will be found over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. This would increase the threat to Florida. A weaker storm would be more likely to wander closer to Cuba through Friday. Another factor that impacts the forecast will be the strength of those upper level southwesterly winds. These winds may cause shear that would weaken Rina if they are strong enough. Again, the more strength that Rina can hold on to, the farther north Rina will track. Another item to consider will be the strength of an upper level trough and associated surface front that will cross the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern states later this week. The stronger this trough is later this week, the farther north Rina will track. Considering all these variables, AccuWeather believes that Rina will end up far enough north to have some impact on the weather in the Florida Keys and possibly a part of South Florida Friday or Saturday.

Residents of and those with interests in southern Florida, The Bahamas and Cuba should all closely monitor the progress of Rina over the coming days. In Quintana Roo, Mexico, storm preparations should be well under way. Those in Belize and on the islands of Honduras should be prepared for tropical storm conditions as the outer bands of Rina will affect those areas.

There is another area to watch for a new development over the next few days. A tropical wave is crossing the eastern Caribbean with the wave axis along 68 west south of 17 north, slowly edging westward. There is a large but spotty and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms with this wave over the central and eastern part of the Caribbean. Upper level winds in this area are marginally favorable for development, though there is some northerly shear along the wave axis south of Puerto Rico. Waters are very warm over the Caribbean Sea ahead of this wave. The odds of further development over the next day or so are long, but there is a decent chance that this develops further toward the end of the week.

One other tropical wave over the open Atlantic along 40 west south of 20 north is causing some showers and thunderstorms, but upper level winds in this area are hostile to further development. It is very slowly crawling westward. Should this wave end up in the Caribbean Sea in several days, conditions could be more favorable there.