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Rina Is A Borderline Category 2/Category 3 Hurricane; Hurricane Warnings Remain In Effect For The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula, Including Cancun & Cozumel
Rob Lightbown of Crown Weather Services

October 26, 2011, 6:28 am

Hurricane Rina:

Satellite imagery and reports from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Rina is holding its own this morning. Reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak flight level wind of 120 mph and surface winds from dropsondes of 112 mph in the eastern eyewall. I would argue that Rina is a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane this morning rather than a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane; but, who's arguing a mere 5 mph? Satellite imagery showed a well defined outflow pattern associated with the hurricane and wind shear values from the CIMSS products indicate that there is about 20 knots of shear right over the core of the hurricane with 30 to 40 knots of shear waiting for Rina as it approaches Cancun and Cozumel on Thursday. Additionally, it appears that Rina will continue to track over some very warm ocean waters today before the ocean heat content decreases tonight into Thursday.

So, I think we will see Rina will peak in its intensity today to 120 or at most 125 mph. From there, I expect Rina to weaken tonight into Thursday and the hurricane should still be a formidable 115 mph Category 3 hurricane when it impacts Cozumel starting late tonight and continuing through all of Thursday and Cancun during Thursday and into Thursday night. By Friday into Saturday, I think we will see Rina turn to the northeast and continue to weaken, however, notice that there is an area of higher ocean heat content in the southern Gulf of Mexico that Rina could track over during Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Now, at that time, the wind shear over Rina will be southwesterly at 40 to 60 mph. So, further weakening is likely and I am going with the GFDL model's idea of a track that takes Rina right across south Florida. What is interesting is that the GFDL model forecasts some strengthening of the hurricane after it tracks between the Yucatan Peninsula and south Florida on Friday; the reason for this is that area of higher ocean heat content I just talked about.

As I just mentioned I do think we will see a track that is very similar to the track that Wilma took, except Rina should be weaker when it crosses south Florida late Friday night into Saturday morning. My thinking is that Rina will track from near Cape Romano in southern Collier County east-northeastward to Boca Raton and Fort Lauderdale in extreme southern Palm Beach and northern Broward County. As for intensity when it crosses south Florida, my thinking is an upper end tropical storm or the very most a minimal Category 1 hurricane. The strongest winds and worst weather would be on the right side of the storm and much of Broward and Miami-Dade Counties as well as much of the Florida Keys may receive tropical storm force winds and heavy rainfall from Friday night into much of Saturday.

Ok, back to the Yucatan Peninsula, tropical storm force winds are expected to reach Cozumel this evening with hurricane force winds expected to arrive in Cozumel around dawn Thursday morning and then continue through much of the day Thursday. The worst part of the hurricane which may have Category 3 strength winds is expected in Cozumel from late Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. The winds are then expected to decrease to below hurricane force by late Thursday afternoon and then below tropical storm force right around midnight Thursday night.

As for Cancun, tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive early Thursday morning with hurricane force winds expected by mid-afternoon Thursday. Hurricane force winds will then continue into Thursday night with the worst part of the hurricane which may have 100 to 110 mph winds from late Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening. The winds are then expected to decrease to below hurricane force just before midnight Thursday night and then below tropical storm force during the mid and late morning hours of Friday.

Additionally, Rina will produce total rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel and Cancun and also a storm surge of 6 to 7 feet along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

So, in closing, it appears that the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula which does include Cancun and Cozumel will be hit quite hard by Hurricane Rina. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for this area and if you haven't done so already, you should prepare quickly for severe hurricane conditions this morning before the weather deteriorates.

Rina Information