Rina pulls its punch
Jeff Masters

2:34 PM GMT on October 28, 2011

Tropical Storm Rina is being ripped apart by strong upper-level southerly winds creating 30 knots of wind shear over the storm. Visible satellite loops show that the low-level circulation of Rina is just a naked swirl over Cancun, on the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. The shear has torn away Rina's heavy thunderstorms so that they lie about 200 miles to the northeast of the center. Cancun radar shows almost no rain affecting the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and surrounding the waters, even though the center of the storm is directly over Cancun. Last night, Rina brought wind gusts of up to 41 mph to Cancun and 43 mph at Cozumel, where 8.20" of rain fell yesterday. Damage from Rina to Cozumel and Cancun should be very minor, and I expect the hotels there will be open for business today.

Rina will continue to be sheared apart today, with the low level center expected to drift slowly southwards along the Yucatan coast. Long range radar out of Key West shows that moisture streaming to the northeast from Rina is bringing rain to the Southwest coast of Florida. Rainfall amounts of 1 - 3 inches are likely over the Florida Keys and South Florida through Sunday due to moisture from Rina. Wind shear should be able to destroy the circulation of Rina by Saturday.


Figure 1. What tropical storm? It's hard to tell a tropical storm with 45 mph winds was centered over this beach in Cancun, Mexico this morning. Rina's heavy rains and strong wind were several hundred miles to the northeast of Cancun this morning, thanks to strong upper-level winds that sheared the storm apart.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rina showing the center of circulation over the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the heavy thunderstorms several hundred miles to the northeast of the center.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A broad region of low pressure in the Western Caribbean between Jamaica and Honduras is drifting slowly northwest at less than 5 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity is disorganized and relatively modest, and NHC is giving the region a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Heavy rains from the disturbance will affect Honduras, the Cayman Islands, and Nicaragua Friday through Sunday. None of the reliable computer models are showing development of a new tropical depression in the Atlantic over the next seven days, though we will continue to see disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean that could generate something.