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TROPICAL STORM RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT RINA CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...
95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COMBINATION OF RINA WEAKENING TO A SHALLOW
VORTEX AND RISING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURES TO ITS NORTHWEST SHOULD CAUSE
RINA TO TURN SOUTHWARD. WHILE THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RINA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL
MEANDER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST NEAR OR OVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THIS...
ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE
CYCLONE...SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING. BASED ON THIS AND THE
CURRENT TRENDS...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RINA TO MEET
AN EARLIER DEMISE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE CYCLONE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 48 HOURS AND TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF THE STRUCTURE AND LOCATION OF THE REMNANTS OF RINA
THE FORECAST OF REMNANT LOW AT 120 HOURS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 19.8N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 20.6N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1800Z 21.3N 87.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 21.2N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 29/1800Z 20.9N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 20.0N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 17.0N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

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