Accuweather

Oct 26, 2011 1:10 PM

Hurricane Rina Rapidy Weakens

Hurricane Rina is a Category 1 Hurricane located at 18.0° N, 85.7° W with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 100 mph

Although Hurricane Rina has weakened, it remains on a collision course with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Rina has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane this afternoon with winds at 85 mph. Rina is much less organized than yesterday as the hurricane has entrained some dry air from the north. This intrusion of dry air has resulted in an erosion of the eye wall. There is also about 15-20 knots of southerly shear impeding the outflow.

Rina will make landfall along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday. Heavy rain from Rina will result in flooding and mudslides across the Yucatan Peninsula today through Thursday. Winds will increase across the coast of the Yucatan today, and hurricane-force gusts are possible Thursday which may result in damage and power outages.

After Thursday, Rina will continue to battle dry air intrusion along with increasing southerly shear. This along with Rina's interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula over the next 36 hours will result in further weakening. An upper-level trough building over the eastern United States late in the week and weekend will help to steer Rina in a more eastward fashion after its interaction with the Yucatan tomorrow. This upper-level trough over the eastern United States will also produce more wind shear over Rina resulting in further weakening and Rina may weaken to tropical storm status by Friday over the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Most computer models then turn what is left of Rina to the southeast over the weekend around the vicinity of western Cuba. While there may be an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity Friday and Saturday across the Florida Keys and far southern Florida, AccuWeather believes that Rina will be in a weakened state by this time as it makes a turn to the southeast toward Cuba. Although Rina is expected to weaken, heavy rain may bring flooding to western parts of Cuba later Friday into the weekend.