Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on August 21, 2007
...Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Dean bearing down on the East
Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the entire coastline of Belize
and along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
from the Belize/Mexico border northward to Cancun. A Hurricane
Warning is also in effect along the West Coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula from south of Progresso southward to Chilitepec.
Preparations to protect life and property along the East Coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula should have already been completed.
Preparations elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area should be
rushed to completion.
At 200 am EDT...0600z...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located by an
Air Force hurricane hunter plane near latitude 18.5 north...
longitude 86.8 west or about 100 miles...160 km...east of Chetumal
Mexico and about 260 miles...420 km...east-southeast of Campeche
Dean is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue today and tonight. On the forecast
track...the eye of Dean will make landfall along the East Coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula in a few hours. Dean will cross the Yucatan
Peninsula later today and likely reach the southern Bay of Campeche
Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dean is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Little change in strength
is expected prior to landfall. Although some weakening is forecast
as Dean crosses the Yucatan Peninsula...Dean is expected to
maintain hurricane strength throughout the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
The minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft data is
911 mb...26.90 inches.
Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
over The Isthmus of Tehuantepec and Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...
Belize...Guatemala...and northern Honduras...with maximum amounts
of up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.
Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels along
with large and dangerous battering waves is possible near and to
the north of where Dean makes landfall along the East Coast of the
Repeating the 200 am EDT position...18.5 N...86.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph.
Minimum central pressure...911 mb.